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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will undertake a pivotal quadruple election, encompassing the presidential race, national assembly, and local seats.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

Seven candidates are competing for the top office, including ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to stand by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé finished second in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The opposition aims to tap into widespread discontent in a country where violence remains a daily reality. Over half a million people are displaced within their own country, with a similar number living as refugees in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the significant progress of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that obstacles remain.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the competition, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former mathematics professor, is widely expected to extend his run. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a insurgent alliance toppled the government in 2013, triggering a civil war.

After a chaotic three-year interim, his reputation for neutrality from the warring factions fueled his second-round victory in 2016.

Election Risks and Logistical Hurdles

Concerns persist that supply-chain issues and insecurity could mar the vote, particularly in the countryside. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering security and logistical support that the country's weak systems is unable to provide.

Further issues include the voter list being published only online, a major hurdle in a country with limited internet access. These issues have led to an electoral boycott and could, according to observers, "exclude many of the electorate."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many residents fear that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean greater influence for outside interests.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for his protection, and even after its founder's death, has resisted calls to integrate its fighters into a new structure. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Allegations have stated the administration evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to make way for a foreign-run agricultural project. A critical editorial charged the leadership of being "intent on sell off the country piece by piece."

Despite a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering a glimmer of stabilization, the election proceeds under a shadow of doubt and external competition.