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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to adopt a resolute position concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "serious repercussions" in August if Russia's president persisted obstructing truce negotiations, the former president finally enacted considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, via his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's proposal would effectively favor Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal effectively weaken that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, implying ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a charred region of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an enticing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in place the already separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with area that its military have been unable to occupy in over a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously compromised.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a open path to Kyiv should he subsequently opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate future conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its military from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "All extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated comparable treaties in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone believe Putin this time?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "decisive coordinated defense action" in case Russia renew its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars include fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal according to sources would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not