Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
